Universidade do Minho	Ricardo M. Sousa			London School of Economics and Political Science
Department of Economics University of Minho Campus of Gualtar 4710-057 - Braga - Portugal			Office: EEG - 2.11           Phone: +351 253 601935           Fax: +351 253 676375           Email: rjsousa@eeg.uminho.pt, rjsousa@alumni.lse.ac.uk
CV			Research
Teaching			Links

I am an Associate Professor with Habilitation at the Department of Economics, a Researcher at the Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE) of the University of Minho, and an Associate Editor of the Economic Modelling. Previously, I worked as a Senior Economist at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), as an Economist at the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), and held visiting positions at the Bank of Portugal and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I also taught at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and the Queen Mary University of London.

I hold a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science and I am a member of the LSE Alumni Association. At the LSE, I studied under the supervision of Alexander Michaelides (Department of Economics) and Christian Julliard (Department of Finance) and was affiliated at the Financial Markets Group (FMG). I also hold a MPhil in Economic Policy and a BSc in Economics from the University of Minho.

My main research interests are: Macroeconomics, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Empirical Finance and Asset Pricing Models, International Finance, Corporate Finance, Housing Economics, Emerging Market Economies, Macro-Econometrics and Quantitative Methods, Economic Modeling, Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Econometrics, Energy Economics, Development and Growth, Political Economy, and Regional and Urban Economics.

I have published in international peer-reviewed journals, such as Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Computational Economics, Economic Inquiry, Energy Economics, Energy Policy, European Journal of Political Economy, International Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Real Estate Economics, and Review of International Economics.

My research has been covered in the media, including The Economist, The Telegraph, City A.M., Le Monde, Jornal de Negócios, Público, CNN Portugal, ECO and RTPN.

Selected Publications:

• "Speculative-grade sovereign rating cycles: Sovereign debt defaults, restructurings and resolution", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, forthcoming. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “What is the impact of natural disasters on sovereign risk? Expect the unexpected!”, Finance Research Open, forthcoming. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh)
• "COVID-19 news and US equity market interactions: An inspection through econometric and machine learning lens". Annals of Operations Research, 2025, 345, 575-596. (with R.K. Jana, I. Ghosh, F. Jawadi and G. Salah Uddin)
• "International monetary policy and cryptocurrency markets: Dynamic and spillover effects". European Journal of Finance, 2024, 30(16), 1855-1875. (with A.H. Elsayed)
• “Making sense of uncertainty: The case of the Scandinavian banking sector”. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2024, 29(4), 3877-3903. (with V. Forsström, K. Lind, G.S. Uddin and R. Jayasekera)
• “China's monetary policy framework and global commodity prices”. Energy Economics, 2024, 138, 107767. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen).
• “Oil shocks and financial stability in MENA countries”. Resources Policy, 2024, 89, 104653. (with A.H. Elsayed and K. Sohag).
• “A quest between fiscal and market discipline”. Economic Modelling, 2023, 119, 106119. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• "Bitcoin market networks and cyberattacks", Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2023, 630, 129165. (with M. Costantini, A. Maaitah and T. Mishra)
• “Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: Why "too" low (high) for "so" long?”. Empirical Economics, 2023, 64, 539-565. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• "Bank credit risk and macro-prudential policies: Role of counter-cyclical capital buffer". Journal of Financial Stability, 2022, 63, 101084. (with N. Benbouzid, A. Kumar, S.K. Mallick and A. Stojanovic)
• “On the international co-movement of natural interest rates”. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 2022, 80, 101610. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• "Do pandemic, trade policy and world uncertainties affect oil price returns?", Resources Policy, 2022, 77, 102705. (with S. Hammoudeh, G. Salah Uddin, C. Wadström and R. Zaman Sharmi)
• "The dual shocks of the COVID-19 and the oil price collapse: A spark or a setback for the circular economy?", Energy Economics, 2022, 109, 105913. (with Y. Errami, S. Hammoudeh, K. Kasmaoui and R. Selmi)
• “What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 122, 102574. (with M. Costantini)
• “Inflation synchronization among the G7 and China: The important role of oil inflation”, Energy Economics, 2021, 100, 105332. (with A.H. Elsayed and S. Hammoudeh)
• “External debt composition and domestic credit cycles”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021, 115, 102377. (with S. Avdjiev and S. Binder)
• "On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases", Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2021, 182, 512-526. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread and flight to quality”, European Financial Management, 2020, 26(3), 778-807. (with M. Costantini)
• “A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2019, 63, 101148. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• "The legacy and the tyranny of time: Exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, 50(8), 1969-1994. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “Economic activity, credit market conditions and the housing market cycle”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018, 22(7), 1769-1789. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• ”Booms, busts and normal times in the housing market", Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(1), 25-45. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• ”US monetary policy and commodity sector prices", Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, 57, 61-85. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen) 

Recent Working Papers:

• “Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The implications of alternative types of bond financing” (with J.M. Serena). Revise and re-submit.
• “Green bond and major asset returns’ interactions under uncertainty” (joint with D. Stenvall, E. Boyer de la Giroday, R. Jayasekera and G.S. Uddin). Submitted.
• "Modelling (asymmetric) oil, equity and exchange rate (risk) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic" (with F. Jawadi, G. Salah Uddin, M. Sahamkhadam and M. Yahya). Submitted.
• “Environmental quality and green technology innovation: Evidence from the BRICS” (with S. Hammoudeh, G. Salah Uddin, Md. Bokhtiar Hasan and Md. Sumon Ali). Submitted.
• “COVID-19 vaccination and financial markets (in)stability in a machine learning environment” (with I. Ghosh, R.K. Jana, F. Jawadi and G. Salah Uddin). Submitted.
• “Natural disasters and sovereigns’ exclusion from international capital markets” (with L. Agnello and V. Castro).
• “The “economic value” of law: Do Collective Action Clauses reduce sovereign bond restructuring costs?” (with V. Castro).
• “The marginal value of sovereigns’ reputation” (with L. Agnello and V. Castro).

Recent Conferences/Seminars:

· FEM-2024: Financial Economic Meeting, Paris (France), 16-18 December 2024.

· 7th International Workshop on "Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics" (FMND), Paris (France), 1-2 June 2023.

· University of Lille, Lille (France), 27 February 2023. [online]

· American Economic Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, 7-9 January 2022. [online]

Selected Media Coverage:

· “BCE dá tiro de partida em ciclo lento e incerto de descida de juros”, ECO, 06/06/2024.

· “BCE abranda o ritmo com juros a caminho de máximos de 22 anos”, ECO, 04/05/2023.

· "Romance entre governos e BCE a caminho do divórcio", ECO, 16/01/2023.

· "Mais uma subida jumbo nos juros do BCE. Será a última?", ECO, 27/10/2022.

· "BCE dá tiro de partida para subidas consecutivas de juros", ECO, 09/06/2022.

· "Um a um, governadores do BCE vão encostando Lagarde à parede", ECO, 12/02/2022.

· “Inflação: uma análise ao indicador que pode mudar a vida de muita gente”, CNN Portugal, 06/02/2022.

· “Juros olham para Frankfurt e viram a cara a São Bento”, Jornal de Negócios, 28/10/2021.

· "Portugal pode “esfregar as mãos” com uma postura mais gastadora do BCE", Jornal de Negócios, 22/07/2021.

· "Revisão do BCE posta à prova com divisão por trás da cortina", Jornal de Negócios, 22/07/2021.

· "BCE volta a mandar os juros de dívida da Zona Euro para baixo", Jornal de Negócios, 21/07/2021.

· “Revolução das moedas digitais põe bancos centrais no “olho do furacão””, Jornal de Negócios, 24/05/2021.

· “Será o BCE capaz de largar a mão sem provocar outra crise?”, Jornal de Negócios, 11/03/2021.

· “O ano em que o BCE aprendeu com o passado”, Jornal de Negócios, 11/03/2021.

· “Nem todo o BCE gosta de ouvir Daft Punk”, Jornal de Negócios, 11/03/2021.

· "Dépendante du tourisme, l'économie portugaise ébranlée par la pandémie de Covid-19", Le Monde, 23/01/2021.

· “Lagarde tem presente no sapatinho para mercados”, Jornal de Negócios, 10/12/2020.

· “Bazuca monetária levou juros de Portugal para abaixo de 0%”, Jornal de Negócios, 10/12/2020.

· “BCE sem união para seguir Fed, para já”, Jornal de Negócios, 10/09/2020.

· “Fed olha por Main Street, mas premeia Wall Street”, Jornal de Negócios, 01/09/2020.

· “A velha luta da Fed pela inflação, com nova linguagem”, Jornal de Negócios, 01/09/2020.

· “Ricardo Sousa sobre o BCE: “O ‘helicopter money’ seria uma boa solução””, Jornal de Negócios, 04/06/2020.

· “A resposta europeia à pandemia: um “castelo de cartas”?”, Público, 11/04/2020.

· “Suspensão das bolsas: solução efetiva ou o adiar do problema?”, Jornal de Negócios, 18/03/2020.

· “Índices europeus cabem na cova de um dente do S&P 500”, Jornal de Negócios, 09/03/2020.

· “Os 20 anos do euro: o problema das lentes a “preto e zero””, Público, 23/10/2019.

· “Les limites du miracle portugais”, Le Monde, 03/10/2019.

· “The gap between poor and rich regions in Europe is widening: Austerity is partly to blame”, The Economist, 2016, October 29th – November 4^th, p.22.

· “To revive the economy, cut spending”, The Telegraph, 204/04/2013.

· “Increasing income inequality: Side-effect of fight against crises?”, Calgary Real Estate, 20/12/2011.

· “99 percenters hurt more by austerity measures than the 1 percent: Study”, The Huffington Post, 29/11/2011.

· “The weekly papers: Interesting economics research”, The Economist, Blog "Free Exchange", 07/12/2011.

· “Impactos dos cortes: Corte nos salários da função pública prejudica dívida pública”, Público, 27/12/2010.

· RTPN, 06/11/2010.

· “Far from the meddling crowd: Economists struggle to answer a vital question”, The Economist, 2010, October 30th – November 5^th, p.76.

· “The housing wealth effect: Falling prices don’t crimp consumption”, The Economist, Blog "Free Exchange", 19/08/2009.